If Obama Was a Bail Agent

If Obama was a bail bondsman, would he attack Syria?

A few years ago, I bailed a man for the petty offense of public intoxication.  Usually, I get cosigners before I post a bond, but this time I did not.  He persuaded me that he was an otherwise responsible person. And, this being the age of cell phones that dial by name rather than number, he could not remember any of his friends’ or family member’s phone numbers.

The bond amount was small, only $1,000.  The premium he had to pay was $100.  He lived in the neighboring county and he promised he would call in a credit card number to cover the fee once he got home.  More often than many would think, I have bonded people out under similar circumstances, I’m rarely stiffed.  But, I’m a bail bondsman and over the years I’ve developed a sense of when to bend the rules of underwriting and when to hold firm.

This would not be much of a story if the man did as he said he would do.  He did not call me with a credit card number, nor did he send a check, a thank you note, or a bottle of wine.   He failed to appear in court, and, as is customary, the court notified me that I had 180 days to produce the body, or pay the $1,000 bond. The court does not use the word “body”, but I like the sound of it.   It conjures up a spirit of days past and people that hear me say it instantly understand that it’s no joke.

When things like this happen, I turn to the same bail investigator I’ve used for 13 years.  Steve, using methods he prefers to keep to himself, tracked the absconded client to a little town near Olympia, Washington.  From his office, Steve called the man.  He was surprised to hear from us and declined our request for him to return to Sonoma County.  He also, declined our request to pay the bond. Before hanging up, he said something like, “Go to hell.  What are you going to do, come here and get me?”

It costs a lot of money to pay two men to drive in a full-size SUV 1,500 miles, stake out a house, and arrest the fugitive when they find him. I’m a good boss, and feel like the people I hire should be able to eat meals and sleep in a motel when they are performing an extended service like this.  Two days later, when Steve and his partner knocked on the man’s door, he was surprised.  He expressed his surprise all the way back to Sonoma County.

Contrary to what many believe, the criminal mind assesses likely responses before it acts.  This is not true for every criminal, but it is true often enough that I count on it.  This man decided that it didn’t make sense for me to spend all that time, money, and energy to bring him back for such a small bond.  He figured he was out of my reach, and that the phone call to him was merely to express empty words. If my business was a publicly-traded corporation, where executives answer to a board of directors, and the board answers to shareholders, he may have been right. A corporate board has a tendency to seek the quickest profit, or the least expense.  But, my business is not publicly traded, it’s closely held by one shareholder, me. I can afford to take the long view.

In his assessment, the man overlooked the value of his story.  When he was booked into the Sonoma County jail, he couldn’t help but tell everyone he encountered, how that crazy guy at Romelli Bail Bonds chased him all the way to Washington for a mere $1,000.  For the rest of that year and into the next, not one person that I bailed out of that jail skipped court.

If Obama was a bail bondsman, he would take military action against Syria.  He would weigh the costs, the risks, the rewards, and then he’d act.  He’d know that the world is watching.  He would not risk the outcome on the deliberations of 435 people that answer directly to their own form of shareholders, voters. He would know that other regimes will be emboldened if he doesn’t act.  He would know that there are significantly less costs, however one measures them, dissuading others from engaging in the use of weapons of mass destruction than ignoring them when they do.  He would know the cost of empty warnings outpaces the cost of backing those warnings up with appropriate action.    

I believe congress will approve military action against Syria, but it will be by a slim margin, and that is enough to cast doubt in the minds of other regimes that our warnings lack strength.  If Obama was a bail bondsman, he’d understand that the criminal mind tends toward exploiting weakness and avoids challenging the strong.